Each year the Financial Times polls a group of economic analysts on what they think the next year holds in store for the UK. The New Weather Institute, a key partner of the Rapid Transition Alliance, is part of that survey published today, and they have collated their responses together. They argue that huge economic threats are balanced by equally large opportunities to solve multiple problems by investing in the economy’s low-carbon, rapid transition. Here are some of the key responses from New Weather Institute and you can read the full article here.

Photo by Andrew Simms, from the walkway at the Glasgow, 2021, COP 26 climate summit

The economy: will the UK economy outpace or lag behind other developed economies in 2022 and why?

The UK is likely to lag behind other developed economies in things that matter – such as meeting climate targets and reversing inequality (or ‘levelling-up’) – because while the government is fond of making impressive-sounding promises, it appears allergic to developing and implementing the policies needed to make them happen.

Monetary policy: to what extent will the Bank of England be in control of inflation by the end of 2022?

The Bank of England can influence but not fully control inflation. But, this matters less than it might appear for two reasons: firstly, fears of inflation are typically exaggerated and secondly, several other overdue shifts in the UK economy could guard against it and ensure that the more vulnerable in society are protected from its effects.

Living standards: to what extent will the UK look like a high wage, high productivity economy at the end of 2022 – and will people feel better or worse off than they do now?

It is unlikely that the UK will look more like a high wage, high productivity economy at the end of 2022 than it does now, but we should not assume that the pursuit of both objectives are necessarily compatible, or that they are the best, or a guaranteed way of making people ‘feel better off’.