A new report published by the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative has found that winding down fossil fuels is non-negotiable to limit warming below 1.5°C, and that existing renewables technology already has enough potential to power the world 50 times over.

The report – Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy – finds that existing coal, oil and gas production puts the world on course to overshoot Paris climate targets. It analyses global renewable energy potential, and finds that every region on Earth can replace fossil fuels with renewable energy to keep warming below 1.5ºC and provide reliable energy access to all.


Last month the International Energy Agency’s released it’s 1.5°C-aligned roadmap to net zero by 2050, which recommended that governments end licensing for new gas, oil and coal extraction. This report goes a step further and states that to limit warming to 1.5˚C, the world not only needs to end the expansion of fossil fuels but also needs to actively wind down existing coal, oil and gas projects.

The main findings of the report include:

  • Even if fossil fuel expansion ended overnight, too many fossil fuels are already under production in existing coal mines and oil and gas wells to remain within a 1.5°C budget.
  • To keep warming to below the temperature goal of 1.5ºC there must be both an end to expansion of fossil fuel production, and a phase down of existing production.
  • The world has more than enough renewable energy resources that can be scaled up rapidly enough to meet the energy demands of every person in the world.
  • The report shows that, by 2030, even without any new coal, oil or gas projects, the world would produce 35% more oil and 69% more coal than is consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.
  • Every continent in the world has enough renewable energy potential to provide 100% renewable energy access to its population.
  • As the cost of renewables has dropped, economic potential for renewables has grown alongside technical potential. Even when taking into account environmental safeguards, land constraints and technical feasibility, solar and wind energy could power the world more than 50 times over.
  • Continuing to expand the fossil fuel sector will only lock in further infrastructure that will become stranded assets, with devastating climate and humanitarian consequences.

A global transition to a low carbon future is already well underway. However a major global energy transition of this scale and speed will require unprecedented levels of international cooperation and new multilateral frameworks such as a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. Countries can and should act now to stop expansion of production and emissions, especially wealthy nations such as the US, Canada, UK, Australia and Norway.




About the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative is spurring international cooperation to end new development of fossil fuels, phase out existing production within the agreed climate limit of 1.5°C and develop plans to support workers, communities and countries dependent on fossil fuels to create secure and healthy livelihoods. Cities such as Vancouver and Barcelona have already endorsed the Treaty with more considering motions to endorse. Hundreds of organisations representing thousands more individuals join the call for world leaders to stop fossil fuel expansion.